The IMF's 2027 projection falls below the expectations of Russia's own authorities. The Economic Development Ministry assumes growth will accelerate from 0.6% this year to 1.4% in 2027. The Bank of Russia's baseline scenario anticipates 0-1% in 2026 and 1.5-2.5% in 2027. The World Bank expects Russian GDP to grow 0.8% in 2026 and 0.7% in 2027-2028.
According to the IMF, high global energy prices are supporting the Russian economy despite reduced supplies caused by damage to oil infrastructure from Ukrainian strikes. Another factor is increased defense spending, which partly offsets unfavorable conditions.
The fund also notes that attacks on Russian refineries and on plants in Persian Gulf countries together removed about 20% of the international supply of petroleum products from the market. This follows from the IMF report, which The Bell cites.
For the global economy, the IMF raised its 2026 forecast from 3% to 3.1%. In 2027, the fund expects acceleration to 3.4%. Global inflation in 2026 will be 4.7%, according to the IMF's estimate.
Among the risks, the fund names the war in the Middle East, high energy prices and rising government debt. According to the IMF forecast, Iran's GDP will contract by 5.4% in 2026, and the economies of Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar are also under pressure from disruptions to the extraction and transportation of energy resources.
The US economy will grow 2.3% in both 2026 and 2027, according to the fund's estimate. China by 4.5% in 2026, India by about 7%. The IMF names investment in artificial intelligence as one of the factors supporting the global economy.