Macron described the scenario as credible in an interview with the television channels TF1 and France 2, pointing to intelligence from the United States, Europe and Ukraine.
"They were waiting for their elections. The elections have passed, and today it is clear that Russia will do this," the French leader said. According to him, it is not yet clear whether there will be a public announcement or whether the call-up will take place covertly. Macron added that there had been "several signs" pointing to preparations for such a step.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky had earlier spoken of the Russian leadership's intention to bring about another 300,000 people into the army. According to him, Moscow is unwilling to announce mobilization before the completion of electoral events for the State Duma. "Russia's infrastructure is already prepared for mobilization. What it will be like is a question," Zelensky said.
Macron linked the possible mobilization to Russia's intention to continue its offensive and try to occupy the whole of the Donbas. He noted that at the current pace of advance this could take another year and a half to two years.
Separately, the French president warned that in recent weeks "hostile actions across Europe have become more frequent." According to him, Russia regards Europe as Ukraine's strategic rear, so European countries may become targets. Macron mentioned incidents in Germany, in particular involving drones at Leipzig airport, and described this not as a hybrid threat but as war.
Russian human rights defenders are recording a sharp rise in requests to leave Russia. This is happening against the backdrop of discussions about a possible new wave of mobilization. The authorities assure that there will not be one.
In September 2022, Russian President Vladimir Putin issued a decree on the so-called partial mobilization, when thousands of Russians were forcibly sent into the army. The document remains in force, but in recent years the main instrument for replenishing the ranks of the Russian armed forces has been the conclusion of open-ended contracts with large cash payments to volunteers.
Sources differ: Macron speaks of a "quite likely" scenario of mobilizing about 300,000 people, citing intelligence data, whereas the Russian authorities, according to sources, deny that mobilization will be announced.