The analysis compared the distribution of party-list results in the current State Duma elections with the 2021 campaign, using preliminary data from 82,124 polling stations — roughly 85% of the total. Final results are not yet available: the Central Election Commission has not published protocols for the Leningrad Region or the annexed territories.
Each polling station is plotted as a point, with turnout on the horizontal axis and the ruling party's result on the vertical.
In the previous Duma elections, most stations clustered in a core area: turnout of about 35–40% and a United Russia result of about 30%. The remaining stations formed a "comet tail" extending to the right and upward, where rising turnout correlated with a rising result for the ruling party. Meduza separately noted a square grid of "beautiful values" — a concentration of stations around round numbers.
In the 2026 elections the picture changed: the "comet tail" grew heavier and turned into a complex, multi-cluster "body." The core survived but became much smaller and thinner — a difference from the 2024 presidential election results. The core's position barely shifted, rising only slightly.
If votes at core stations are treated as "unfalsified," United Russia's result has grown by about five percentage points since 2021 — from roughly 30% to roughly 35%. Meduza calls this interpretation reasonable but notes it has details the outlet will address below.
Another new feature is a sparse vertical "column" of stations to the left of the main cluster. Highlighted by region, these turn out to be paper-voting polling stations in Moscow.