In late August, the Russian currency hit multi-month lows: on the over-the-counter market, the dollar rose to 86.85 rubles, the euro to 100.52 rubles, and the Chinese yuan on the Moscow Exchange updated its high since February 2025. Over the summer, the ruble weakened against the dollar by about 20% and against the yuan by 22%, Reuters reports.
Analysts attribute the weakening to reduced export shipments through the Black Sea: Ukrainian drone attacks have complicated operations at the port of Novorossiysk and knocked out major refineries, making Russia a net importer of petroleum products, notes Anastasia Stepantsova, an analyst at Alfa Investments.
The ruble is also under pressure from the Finance Ministry's daily currency purchases under the budget rule, rising imports, and seasonal demand for foreign currency, adds Alexander Isakov, chief economist at Sber. According to him, in the first half of the year the ruble was supported by high oil prices, but they later corrected, and the Finance Ministry resumed currency purchases.
Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) points to an additional factor — the unwinding of carry-trade positions: yields on ruble instruments are falling due to monetary policy easing, while devaluation risks have grown. The outflow of speculative capital, in the outlet's view, could accelerate the ruble's decline.
According to Reuters, market participants expect the Central Bank to keep the key rate unchanged at its September 11 meeting: the fuel crisis in August entered a new phase, and the ruble's weakening adds to pro-inflationary risks.
On the first day of September, the ruble attempted a corrective rebound, but analysts at Alfa Investments and Sber forecast the dollar at 87–88 rubles by year-end.