Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin signed an order submitting the draft federal budget for 2027 and the 2028–2029 planning period, TASS reported.
All three years run a deficit: 5.5 trillion rubles in 2027, 5.1 trillion in 2028 and 5.3 trillion in 2029. According to The Insider, spending in 2027 is planned at 48.8 trillion rubles against revenue of 43.3 trillion. By 2029, spending rises to 53.9 trillion and revenue to 48.6 trillion. The deficit holds at about 2% of GDP annually.
Reuters, which reviewed the text of the document, reported that defense spending in 2027 will rise 27% above the original plan, to 17.1 trillion rubles — the largest sum since the war in Ukraine began.
At the same time, according to Reuters, funding for the social sector and health care will be cut by 7%, and education by 6%. Spending under the "National Economy" section, which includes road construction and infrastructure projects, will be reduced by 7.4%. Servicing the state debt will cost 21.6% more and will account for 9.4% of total spending.
The government lists social obligations, assistance to participants in the "SVO" and their relatives, meeting defense and security needs, developing health care and education, and technological leadership among the budget's priorities. The government's statement does not specify how much will go to the army and security services.
The draft is drawn up under the base scenario: GDP growth in 2027 is expected at 1.4%, accelerating to 2.4% by 2029. Insurance pensions will be indexed twice — by 6.8% from February 1, in line with 2026 inflation, and by a further 3.3% from April 1. The subsistence minimum will rise to 20,227 rubles and the minimum wage to 28,935 rubles (both up 6.8%).
Road-sector funding, according to Vedomosti, will exceed 4.4 trillion rubles over three years. More than 7 trillion rubles will go to health care in 2027 and more than 100 billion to education. About 19 trillion rubles is reserved for national projects.
Regions in a difficult financial situation will receive an additional 100 billion rubles in equalization grants. On Vladimir Putin's instructions, the government will push back the repayment of federal budget loans by the regions to a period after 2030, freeing up about 300 billion rubles.
A year ago, more modest parameters were set for 2027: 46.1 trillion rubles in spending against 42.9 trillion in revenue, a deficit of 3.2 trillion. Spending under the "National Defense" item was then planned at 13.57 trillion rubles. According to The Insider, in 2026 the war and security services together accounted for about 38% of all budget spending.
The Finance Ministry presented the draft budget to the government on September 24. It included raising the tax rate on passive income, as well as VAT to 22% on purchases of goods through cross-border electronic trade.
Sources differ in their assessment of how balanced the budget is: the government calls the draft "balanced" (The Insider), while The Bell notes that the cabinet's press release does not mention the planned cuts to social spending and the increase in military spending.