Average prices for third-class wheat in Russia fell 2.8% to 11,500 rubles per ton during August 10–16, according to data cited by Kommersant. Fourth-class wheat dropped 3.1% to 11,000 rubles, fifth-class fell 2% to 10,000 rubles, and barley declined 5.6% to 9,700 rubles per ton. These are the lowest levels since May 2024, with fourth-class wheat down 24% year-on-year.
Market participants told Kommersant that the price drop is linked to the suspension of all three grain terminals in Novorossiysk. The two largest facilities halted operations after a drone attack on August 12; their combined export capacity is 15.6 million tons of grain per year. United Grain Company officially confirmed damage to infrastructure at the NCHP terminal. A terminal in Taman, with a capacity of 5 million tons per year, had already stopped working after a drone strike.
Rail deliveries of cargo to the port have been completely halted. According to Russian Railways, shipments are suspended until August 22. Earlier, Russia restricted navigation on the Azov-Don Canal and closed the port of Kavkaz. Deep-water Black Sea ports account for 70–75% of Russia's maritime grain exports, with the Azov Sea and shallow ports in the Rostov region providing up to a quarter.
In southern Russia, wheat prices fell 12–15.4% over the month, and barley fell 16%. The wheat index with delivery to Novorossiysk port dropped 20.7% year-on-year. Farmers are delaying sales, hoping for a price recovery. Analysts expect further declines: the domestic market is not increasing purchases amid expensive credit and expectations of further price drops.
Export problems have been acknowledged in the Rostov region, which harvested a record 13.6 million tons of grain. The harvest is mostly stored in warehouses. Mikhail Maryshev, chairman of the agro-industrial committee of the regional branch of Opora Rossii, estimated the cost of producing wheat at 14,000–17,000 rubles per ton, while the market price has fallen below 11,500 rubles.
Amid export restrictions, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture is discussing grain purchases for the intervention fund to support the domestic market. This issue was considered at a meeting on August 12. United Grain Company has already begun searching for available storage capacity. Additionally, the ministry is discussing extending preferential short-term loans to one year in regions with grain surpluses and subsidies for producers.
The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies expects Russian wheat exports to fall by more than 30% year-on-year in August. The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its forecast for Russian exports for the 2026/27 season from 47.5 million to 46 million tons due to Black Sea disruptions.
Russian wheat has also become cheaper on the global market, falling 1.3% to $224 per ton. EU wheat rose 10.6% over the month to $262, Canadian wheat rose 7.4% to $292, and American wheat rose 8.8% to $321. The USDA attributes the rise in foreign prices to supply problems from Russia and increased demand for grain from other exporters.
Novorossiysk resumed operations at its oil loading port on Sunday, after it was halted on Friday following a drone attack. A Suezmax-class tanker began loading Kazakh KEBCO crude, two industry sources said.