Ukrainian long-range drone strikes have knocked out more than 30% of Russia's actual and 45% of its nominal oil refining capacity, the Financial Times reported after analyzing refinery schematics, photographs, satellite images and thermal imaging data. Additional analysis was provided by Frontelligence Insight, an analytical group led by a former Ukrainian officer.
According to the FT, the largest refineries have been hit hardest. Surgutneftegas's plant in Kirishi, with a capacity of 408,000 barrels per day, has been completely shut down. Rosneft's Ryazan refinery (348,000 bpd) and Lukoil's plants in Kstovo (345,000 bpd) and Volgograd (342,000 bpd) have had roughly half their capacity halted.
In Tuapse, April strikes destroyed more than a dozen storage tanks with a total capacity of about 80,000 cubic meters, as well as a secondary processing unit built as part of a modernization that Vladimir Putin personally inaugurated, the FT estimated. The refinery is now completely idle, the newspaper said.
The largest refinery on the list — Gazprom Neft's Omsk plant, with a capacity of 440,000 bpd — has resumed full operation after repairs, according to the data. In Omsk, an oil desalting and dehydration unit was damaged.
Of the 26 refineries that were hit and halted production, only eight had returned to full operation as of July 27, the FT reported, citing satellite data and analysis by S&P Global. Those that resumed output at 100% capacity include Russia's largest refinery in Omsk, the Taneco plant in Tatarstan, Gazpromneftekhim Salavat in Bashkortostan, and the Ufaneftekhim, Permnefteorgsintez, Novoufimsky, Ukhta and Antipinsky refineries.
At least 11 plants have only partially restored production, while seven remain idle. Among the latter are Kinef in the Leningrad region — the country's second-largest refinery — as well as Rosneft's Tuapse, Syzran, Kuibyshev and Novokuibyshev refineries, a plant in Slavyansk-on-Kuban, and Gazprom's Astrakhan gas processing plant.
Even after refineries resume operations, activity typically recovers slowly, according to measurements of nighttime light emissions around the facilities: for sites attacked last year, the decline persisted for more than 13 months. S&P Global Energy analysts noted that restoration of original capacity is slow, with damage persisting weeks and months after attacks.
Unlike last year's campaign, Ukraine's 2026 strikes have focused on secondary processing units that extract light petroleum products — gasoline, aviation kerosene and diesel fuel — explained Sergei Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center. Although plants can continue production, the quality of output declines.
In July, Russia's oil refining volumes fell to 3.5 million barrels per day — the lowest level in more than two decades — and regions from Siberia to Kaliningrad experienced fuel shortages. Gasoline production in early July covered only about 65% of seasonal demand, Reuters reported.
A Russian businessman told the FT that Ukraine's tactics resemble a medieval cavalry wedge: "A net can catch one drone, but when three hit the same point, it is physically impossible to stop them."