The New York Times reported that it obtained a copy of a document Ukraine's deputy prime minister and energy minister, Denys Shmyhal, presented to European partners in Paris two weeks ago. According to the newspaper, Kyiv received the plan through intelligence and calls it a Russian blueprint for destroying Ukraine's energy system through "methodical attacks." The NYT said it could not independently confirm the authenticity of the document, which is dated August and written in Russian.
The document describes three stages of attacks. First, missile and drone strikes are to disable substations near Ukraine's western borders, through which the country imports electricity from Europe. Attacks on hydroelectric plants are then planned. The third stage calls for shutting down all three of Ukraine's operating nuclear plants: Rivne, South Ukraine and Khmelnytskyi.
The NYT calls the most alarming part of the plan strikes on the substations connecting the nuclear plants to the grid. They are located between 1 and 1.5 km from the reactors. According to figures for the end of 2025 cited by the National Commission for State Regulation of Energy and Public Utilities, the nine operating power units at those three plants generate about 63% of Ukraine's electricity. A fourth plant, Zaporizhzhia, is on occupied territory.
In total, according to the document, Russia intends to knock out generating capacity of almost 15 GW — the amount Ukraine had at the end of the summer. Up to a thousand missiles, drones and bombs are to be used. Targets listed besides substations include hydroelectric and thermal power plants and boiler houses.
The plan for the first time envisages large-scale strikes on Ukraine's water supply system: pumping stations and treatment facilities. Russia has never previously carried out mass strikes on such sites, the NYT notes. The ultimate goal is to deprive Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa of up to 90% of their electricity and heat and to seriously disrupt the sewerage system. Ukrainian officials expect the bombing campaign to peak in November.
According to the newspaper, Russian forces have already begun carrying out the plan: on September 30, missiles and drones attacked a large thermal power plant and other energy facilities in Kyiv, leaving several districts of the city without electricity and water.
Ukraine's authorities have spent recent months preparing for winter. Hundreds of millions of dollars were spent on repairing power plants and substations and installing more compact energy facilities that are harder to hit, such as gas turbines. Protective structures were built over substations and other important sites. In private conversations, Ukrainian officials expressed concern that the country has only a limited number of contingency plans in the event of serious water supply disruptions.
The NYT recalls that Russian President Vladimir Putin has previously spoken of conducting a large-scale winter operation to destroy Ukraine's energy infrastructure in response to Ukrainian strikes on Russian oil refineries. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky told the Financial Times that Putin ordered the military leadership to disregard the rules of war — according to Zelensky, this follows from intelligence including intercepted messages of Kremlin officials. Senior Ukrainian officials told The Economist that Putin ordered attacks on all civilian sites in Kyiv to increase public tension and destabilize the country's political situation.