The estimate relies on a method developed by physicist Sergei Shpilkin, under which genuine polling stations form an even "core" in the distribution of votes by turnout and result, while stations with falsifications form a "comet tail."

According to preliminary data from the Central Election Commission, turnout in the State Duma elections was 59.32%, and United Russia is taking 57.83%. That is the highest turnout at an election of this level since 1993 and the party's best result in its history; it could receive 347 mandates.

Boris Ovchinnikov, co-founder of Data Insight, who analyzed the first 20,000 published protocols from roughly a quarter of the polling stations, estimates real turnout at less than 40%. By his calculations, outside Moscow turnout was falsified or artificially inflated at almost 70% of polling stations, about 31% of votes were falsified, and the share of falsification in United Russia's result could reach 55%.

Analyst Pyotr Zhizhin, who also used Shpilkin's method, arrived at similar turnout figures. In his estimate, United Russia's real result is 35%.

Roman Udot, former co-chair of the Golos movement, commenting on the data, called what is happening the agony of the system: in his words, Siberia began turning into "electoral sultanates" because the needed result was not being achieved, and the authorities were forced to resort to extreme measures. Administrative resource, by his assessment, has been squeezed dry - it accounts for about 20 percentage points.

A separate episode in the count concerns A Just Russia. Electoral analyst Stanislav Andreychuk noted that on Monday afternoon about 60,000 votes for the party appeared in the CEC system within an hour, moving it from below the threshold to above it. In his words, the decision was not connected to how things were actually unfolding: one phone call, and the figure was immediately rewritten.

An electoral expert speaking anonymously to the Telegram channel Elections in Detail had earlier drawn attention to the sharp surge in votes for A Just Russia. He explained that such an increase would have required polling stations where A Just Russia averaged 14.5%, the Communist Party 4.5%, and New People 3.1%.

In the first half of the count, A Just Russia was not clearing the 5% threshold. With 95.18% of protocols counted, the party was taking 4.96%; after 96.95%, it reached 5%; and by the end of 97.37% of protocols, 5.1%.

A Just Russia was created in 2006 through the merger of Rodina, the Party of Pensioners and the Party of Life as a second party of power. The Kremlin hoped to create on the left flank what the then-curator of domestic policy, Vladislav Surkov, called a "second leg"; the party also had a more utilitarian goal - to take votes from the Communist Party.