The Wall Street Journal, citing new US intelligence reports, reported that American spy agencies consider it possible that Russia could launch a limited attack on a NATO member state between autumn 2026 and 2029.
The documents outline scenarios ranging from a cyberattack or deployment of unidentified armed groups to seize territory, to a limited incursion on the alliance's eastern flank. The most severe scenario — a ground invasion — is still seen as unlikely, though the chances of such an outcome are growing, the newspaper said.
According to WSJ's sources, the goal of such an attack would be to split the alliance and cast doubt on the reliability of Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty, which stipulates that an attack on one NATO member is considered an attack on all. However, Article 5 does not automatically require sending troops in the event of a large-scale cyberattack or hybrid operation — each state decides its own response, experts note.
Previously, the US intelligence community assumed that Putin would not deliberately provoke a direct clash with NATO while the war with Ukraine continues. According to WSJ, this assessment changed early this year, amid growing Russian military losses, slowing advances, and Ukrainian strikes on oil and gas infrastructure deep inside Russian territory. Washington is concerned that "Putin could become even more dangerous when cornered," the article said.
American and European officials also increasingly view some Russian actions as attempts to test NATO's reaction. WSJ cites Russian missiles that entered Polish airspace and drones in Romania as examples.
The new assessments come amid concerns in Washington about dwindling stockpiles of certain weapons after deliveries to Ukraine and the war with Iran. WSJ reports shortages of some missiles and air defense systems, including Patriot, SM-3, and THAAD. The Pentagon denies claims of ammunition shortages. NATO spokesman Martin O'Donnell said the alliance is considering various scenarios and is ready for "deterrence and defense."