Andrei Klepach, chief economist at Russian state development corporation VEB.RF, said Russia is losing the technological and economic competition not only to China and the United States, but in some respects also to Ukraine. His remarks were published by The Moscow Times, citing a transcript of a meeting of the Nikitsky Club, an informal discussion platform for economists and politicians.
Klepach noted that Ukraine's economy, despite destruction and a demographic catastrophe, is 'surviving' thanks to large-scale Western aid.
'We will not win the competition in this war of attrition. We have an illusion that everything will collapse there. It has not collapsed and will not collapse. Our costs are growing,' Klepach said.
The economist also said that the costs of sanctions are rising, and that Ukrainian strikes on port, oil and gas, and logistics infrastructure have already become a 'noticeable macroeconomic barrier to growth.' Taking new sanctions into account, he estimated that potential economic growth rates may not exceed 1–1.5%.
Klepach predicted a social crisis for Russia, which he said could begin unexpectedly. He drew parallels with the period before the February Revolution of 1917 and the collapse of the Soviet Union. 'I believe Russia will not fall apart, but that we will come to a social crisis, I am almost sure. Economically we will not collapse, but our lag will grow with all the ensuing consequences,' he concluded.