The Moscow Exchange index IMOEX2, which accounts for all trading sessions, fell 5.7% on July 16 to 1,991.42 points — the lowest level since October 20, 2022. The main session index IMOEX dropped 4.24% to 2,022.27 points, marking its biggest decline since September 26, 2022.
Shares of Gazprom fell during the day to 83.98 rubles, the lowest since October 24, 2008. VTB shares hit an all-time low, losing 6.43% to close at 57.53 rubles. The biggest losers included TMK (-18.52%), Whoosh (-15.7%), Segezha (-13.62%), Polyus (-12.71%) and VK (-12.55%). VK's shares were additionally pressured by the removal of the company's apps — including the Max messenger and the VKontakte social network — from Google Play.
Since March, the Moscow Exchange index has lost more than 31%: on March 9 it stood at 2,904.39 points. The market has fallen for 19 consecutive weeks without significant pullbacks, financial blogger Yevgeny Kogan noted.
Analysts cited geopolitical risks, expectations of new sanctions (the EU's 21st package and US 'hell sanctions' are being discussed), dividend cutoffs and a fuel crisis as reasons for the decline. Gasoline prices rose 2.3% over the past week, diesel by 3.2%. In seven regions, AI-95 gasoline costs more than 100 rubles per liter.
The Central Bank on Wednesday published a survey of analysts who raised their key rate forecast for 2026 from 14.1% to 14.5% (the current rate is 14.25%). The forecast for 2027 was revised from 10.6% to 12.2%. GDP growth forecasts for 2026–2027 were lowered to 0.6% and 1.3%, respectively.
Economist Vladislav Inozemtsev, commenting to Agentstvo, linked the crash to 'the Kremlin's insane economic policy' and asset confiscation, citing the sale of Yuzhuralzoloto on the fourth attempt for half the price. He suggested the decline could continue to 1,830–1,860 points — a 30% correction from the 2026 highs.