The Insider reached the figure by comparing analyst data published by the business daily Kommersant. Delays of four hours or more rose almost 2.4-fold, to 36,000 flights, or 5% of all flights, while the frequency of cancellations doubled.
The analysts tracked flights operated by 30 large Russian airlines and about 60 foreign carriers, which together account for roughly 97% of passenger traffic in Russia. Delays of one hour or more increased 1.7-fold, to 128,000 flights, or 19% of all tracked flights, and delays of two hours or more doubled, reaching 77,000.
The share of flights departing on schedule fell at the same time. In the first nine months of 2025, 57% of aircraft left within 15 minutes of their scheduled time; over the same period in 2026, only 52% did. In 2024, the figure stood at 71%.
Kommersant estimated, based on an assumed aircraft capacity of 150 seats, that delays of three hours or more affected more than 7.6 million people in the first nine months of 2026, compared with about 4.5 million passengers for all of 2025.
One cause of the increase was more frequent restrictions on the operation of Russian airports because of the threat of drone attacks. Since late April, the Kover (Carpet) plan, which provides for the temporary closure of airspace, has been introduced almost daily in central Russia and the south of the country.
On the night of October 9, restrictions were in force for about seven hours at Moscow's Domodedovo, Vnukovo and Zhukovsky airports. Aircraft were redirected to St. Petersburg, Kazan, Nizhny Novgorod and other cities. Several flights arriving from Turkey turned around and returned to their departure airports.
According to an estimate by Ekho based on data from the AirportsRu and Samokatus services, over the incomplete week of October 3 to 9, four Moscow airports operated under restrictions for a combined 13.9% of the time. For 7.7% of the time the airports were fully closed, and for 6.1% of the time they handled arrivals and departures "by agreement," that is, with delays.
The share of time the airports were closed rose sharply compared with the two previous weeks: 2.5% from September 19 to 25 and 0.3% from September 26 to October 2. On average over the past 90 days, Domodedovo, Sheremetyevo, Vnukovo and Zhukovsky were fully closed 2.3% of the time.
The median duration of a closure at Domodedovo over the past 90 days was 2 hours 46 minutes. On the night of October 9, Vnukovo and Zhukovsky were closed for 6 hours 37 minutes.
Kommersant's sources at four regional airports said they would like to receive information about the lifting of the Kover regime more promptly. At the Gelendzhik air hub, officials explained that timely notification from the Defense Ministry is especially important for serving passengers and releasing aircraft that remain on the apron during restrictions.
An aviation specialist who asked to remain anonymous told Ekho that a full airport closure makes the situation less predictable than operating "by agreement." Aviation has strict limits on permissible crew working hours, so airlines are more often forced to cancel or delay flights because the crew needs mandatory rest.
Disruptions at Moscow airports affect civil aviation across the whole of Russia, the Ekho source added. A significant share of traffic at the Moscow air hub is connecting traffic, and when flights are redirected to other airports it cannot perform the function of a transfer hub.
S7 said that in 2026 airports began using partial airspace restrictions more often instead of full closures. Aeroflot said it had developed special schemes for redistributing aircraft and serving passengers during restrictions.
Rosaviatsia data differ substantially from insurers' estimates. As the Transport Ministry told Kommersant, between January and August 2026 the agency recorded 118,100 flights delayed by more than two hours, 20.3% more than a year earlier. Over the same period, AlfaStrakhovanie counted 65,000 such cases, almost double last year's figure.
The difference is attributed to methodology: Rosaviatsia also counts charter, cargo, military and other flights that are not part of the comparable sample of scheduled passenger traffic.
Russian airlines continue to face a shortage of serviceable aircraft and difficulties with maintenance. According to Kommersant's estimates, by the end of June the largest carriers had 130 aircraft idle, or 19.3% of their combined fleet. Excluding the Aeroflot group, the share of unused aircraft reached almost a third.
The Transport Ministry says the share of delays caused by technical faults fell in 2026, from 12.7% to 10.1% of all delayed flights. Kommersant's sources in the aviation industry link this to a reduction in the number of aircraft in operation.
Sources differ: The Insider and AlfaStrakhovanie estimate the number of flights delayed by more than two hours between January and September at 77,000, while the Transport Ministry reports 118,100 such flights between January and August. The ministry attributes the difference to a counting methodology that includes charter, cargo and military flights.