Russia's Federal State Statistics Service (Rosstat) published a preliminary estimate showing GDP grew 1.3% year-on-year in the second quarter, after the economy contracted 0.2% in the first quarter according to the agency's data.
The result beat expectations from both the central bank and the government: the Bank of Russia and the Ministry of Economic Development had forecast growth of 0.8% and 0.9%, respectively. Following the data release, the Ministry of Economic Development raised its GDP growth estimate for the first half of the year from 0.3% to 0.6%.
As The Bell notes, growth came despite Ukrainian drone strikes and the key interest rate, which the Bank of Russia holds at 14%. In the spring, Vladimir Putin demanded that the government take measures over the economic decline.
According to RBC, the main growth driver was consumer activity: retail trade turnover increased 7.2% year-on-year. Ekaterina Mereminskaya, economics editor at The Insider, attributes the success to a calendar factor and external conditions: April-June had more working days than a year earlier, and the budget stimulus and expensive oil also helped.
In 2025, GDP growth was 1%, compared with 4.9% in 2024. The central bank expects the economy to grow no more than 1% by the end of 2026.
At the same time, Rosstat recorded a 0.06% decline in consumer prices from August 4 to August 10. Annual inflation stood at 6.05% according to official data, and prices have risen 4.69% since the start of the year. The central bank's inflation forecast for 2026 is 6-7%.