Russia's seaborne crude oil exports hit record 4.13 million barrels per day, but revenue falls

Russia's seaborne crude oil exports rose to a record 4.13 million barrels per day in the four-week period ending June 28, the highest since the start of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Bloomberg reported, citing tanker tracking data. The figure is 780,000 barrels per day above the average for the first quarter of 2026.

In the last week of June (June 22–28), Russia loaded a record 43 tankers carrying 32.39 million barrels, Agentstvo reported, citing Bloomberg's calculations. The previous week, 38 tankers carrying 28.79 million barrels were loaded.

The increase in shipments is partly linked to Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian oil refineries, The Bell reported. Recent targets included plants in Ufa, Yaroslavl and Slavyansk-on-Kuban. The Moscow refinery may not resume operations until the end of the year after the strikes, according to Reuters. Oil that cannot be processed domestically is being redirected for export, Bloomberg noted. Vladimir Putin acknowledged a "non-critical" fuel shortage in Russia on June 28.

At the same time, prices for Russia's main export grade, Urals, have fallen sharply, tracking global benchmarks. According to Argus Media data cited by Bloomberg, a barrel of Urals from Baltic ports halved from early May levels to $62.66; the price from Black Sea ports fell to $62.18. Deliveries to India, including shipping costs, fell to $82.47, the lowest since mid-March.

The price decline is attributed to market expectations that a temporary truce between the U.S. and Iran will become permanent, Agentstvo noted. Prices for ESPO crude fell by $5.6 to $74.27.

As a result, the sharp increase in export volumes did not offset the price drop. The gross value of Russia's oil exports fell to $1.9 billion per week, the lowest since March, according to Bloomberg calculations.

The market is not absorbing all the oil being shipped. The volume of Russian oil transported by sea has risen by a third since mid-April. This has led to a record accumulation of oil at sea — 133 million barrels, 34% more than in mid-April, Bloomberg reported. Tankers have begun to cluster off the coasts of Egypt and Singapore, which may indicate that Moscow is finding it increasingly difficult to find buyers, Bloomberg noted.

Indian refineries received a record 2.7 million barrels per day of Russian oil in June, according to preliminary data from Kpler and LSEG cited by Reuters, up from 1.95–2.13 million in May. That accounted for more than half of India's total oil imports, compared with 36.5% a month earlier. Indian processors increased purchases of Russian oil to compensate for supply disruptions from the Middle East due to restrictions in the Strait of Hormuz.

If demand from China remains subdued after the start of the war with Iran and the sanctions exemption allowing purchases of Iranian oil is not extended beyond mid-August, Russia may have to offer additional discounts, Bloomberg noted.