Russia's average daily oil refining throughput dropped to 3.6 million barrels in July, the lowest level since May 2002, according to data from EA Analytics cited by Bloomberg. Just weeks earlier, analysts had estimated the figure at 3.91 million barrels, which was already the lowest since March 2005. In the same period of 2020–2025, Russian refineries processed an average of 5.3–5.6 million barrels per day.
Bloomberg calculated that Russian oil infrastructure came under at least 30 strikes in July. Including eight attacks on tankers near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal, for which no one claimed responsibility, July became the record month for attacks on Russia-linked oil facilities. In total, 18 plants came under fire during the month, including the country's largest, the Omsk refinery, as well as five tankers, five port facilities and two pipelines.
Sergei Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Berlin office of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Russia's efforts to strengthen its air defenses could reduce the number of drones reaching their targets but would not fully protect them. In the first half of July, Ukraine focused on refineries; in the second half, on tankers and maritime infrastructure. This disrupted shipments from southern ports, prompting Russia's Defense Ministry to warn vessels of risks on one of the key routes for oil exports.
Russia may try to redirect oil from Novorossiysk to Baltic ports, according to Jorge Leon of Rystad Energy. However, spare capacity in pipelines, storage and tankers is unlikely to be enough to handle all volumes, and Ukraine can reach Baltic ports as well, as it did earlier this year.
The July strikes exacerbated a fuel crisis that began in May in annexed Crimea and spread across the country. In June and July, nearly all Russian regions introduced limits on gasoline sales. On August 3, Mongolia, which imports 95% of its petroleum products from Russia, announced similar restrictions.