Four-week average seaborne crude exports rose to 3.54 million barrels a day, the strongest gain since May, Bloomberg's calculations show. In the week to September 13, 38 tankers loaded 27.06 million barrels, up from 23.88 million barrels on 33 vessels a week earlier, according to The Insider, The Bell and TV Rain, all citing the agency's figures.
The jump in shipments coincided with a fresh surge in oil prices. A drone attack disabled Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which the kingdom used to bypass Iran's de facto blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Brent futures climbed to their highest since May, and Russian grades also rose in price.
The Baltic port of Ust-Luga accounted for most of the increase, shipping roughly a third more in September than in August, or an additional 160,000 barrels a day. To free up capacity there, all exports of Kazakhstan's KEBCO grade were redirected this month to Novorossiysk on the Black Sea. Shipments from that port only resumed in late August after Ukrainian drone strikes.
Deliveries to Asia rose to 3.41 million barrels a day from 3.35 million a week earlier. Cargoes delivered to India last week brought in the most money since early May, while the Far East ESPO grade for China was offered at a premium of more than $20 a barrel to Brent. Exports to Turkey fell to about 50,000 barrels a day from 80,000, and shipments to Syria dropped to zero from August. At the same time, deliveries to Egypt rose to about 80,000 barrels a day from roughly 30,000 four weeks earlier.
Rising exports have not helped production. In August, Russian output fell for a ninth consecutive month, to 8.72 million barrels a day, more than 1 million barrels a day below the level permitted under the agreement with OPEC+ partners. Some of the oil is being exported because there is nowhere to refine it: strikes on refineries and gas condensate processing plants continue almost every night.
Citing The Wall Street Journal, oil company executives including those at Chevron warn of a prolonged fuel shortage caused by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the depletion of global reserves and the attack on the Saudi pipeline. The administration of Donald Trump calls the disruptions temporary and expects to bring prices down by boosting production in Venezuela. Bloomberg notes that Trump blames strikes on Russian refineries, rather than the war in the Middle East, for the rise in diesel prices.