The simplified closure procedure allows a legal entity to shut down in 3.5 months instead of the standard year, but only if the company has no debts, litigation, property, vehicles and — crucially — does not pay VAT.
In 2026, authorities raised VAT from 20% to 22% and cut the revenue threshold below which companies are exempt from the tax from 60 million to 20 million rubles. As a result, many firms that previously fell in the preferential zone now either must pay VAT or switch to a 5% rate on turnover, forfeiting the right to tax deductions. In both cases, legal entities lose the ability to close under the simplified procedure, giving businesses near the revenue threshold an incentive to shut down early, the If to Be Precise project said.
The link between rising liquidations and the higher tax burden is also suggested by the fact that the overall number of company closures did not increase. In the first half of 2026, 134,000 legal entities ceased to exist, compared with 142,000 in the same period of 2025. The higher tax burden hit smaller companies harder, the report noted.
Experts at Sber's Center for Macroeconomic Research reached similar conclusions, declaring the onset of a "demographic crisis of enterprises": since the start of the year, the number of liquidations for economic reasons has grown from roughly 5,000 to 12,000–15,000 per month. At the same time, the creation of new companies has slowed: 62,000 organizations were registered in January–May 2026, down from 80,000 a year earlier — a drop of nearly 22%.
"The combination of voluntary closures and minimal registration activity means that the demographic gap for the first time reflects a deterioration in the position of operating businesses, rather than another cleanup of the register," Sber's report said. The decline affected almost all industries, with trade, construction and manufacturing contributing the most.
The business climate has been worsening since the second half of 2024, when the economy began to slow sharply. GDP growth decelerated from more than 4% in 2023–2024 to 1% last year and nearly zero this year. Taxes have been raised two years in a row: corporate profit tax and personal income tax increased in 2025, and VAT this year.