Utility tariffs rose across Russia on October 1, driving weekly inflation to 0.96%, of which the housing and utilities sector accounted for 0.75 percentage points, according to the Economic Development Ministry. Stripping out utility services, consumer prices rose 0.21% over the week, roughly in line with the 0.25% recorded a week earlier.
Rosstat reported that annual inflation accelerated to 7.17% under the Economic Development Ministry's methodology, up from about 6.26% a week earlier. Interfax, using a methodology close to the Central Bank's calculations, put the figure at 7.08% as of October 5. The upper bound of the Bank of Russia's forecast for the year is 7%.
The government had planned an average indexation of the combined utility payment of 9.9%, following 11.9% in 2025. According to Rosstat, the actual increase was higher: wastewater disposal rose by an average of 17.1%, cold water supply by 15.3%, hot water by 14.2%, heating by 12.7% and electricity by 12%.
The Insider noted that this year's indexation is taking place in two stages: in January, fees rose by 1.7% in all regions, and from October 1, different indices took effect for each federal subject. The highest average index was set in Stavropol Krai (22%), followed by Dagestan (19.7%), Yakutia (18.9%), Tambov Oblast (17.5%), Tyumen Oblast (17.2%) and North Ossetia (16.3%). In Moscow the figure is 15%, in St. Petersburg 14.6%. The lowest indices are in Khakassia and Chukotka, at 8% each.
The Moscow Times noted that, excluding the price jump in early January caused by the VAT increase (when inflation over the first 12 days was 1.26%), this is the largest weekly rise in the consumer price index since spring 2022. In last year's tariff week the index rose 0.79%, but part of that growth was then offset by a seasonal decline in fruit and vegetable prices.
The price increases affected more than utility services. Over the week, eggs added 2.2%, buckwheat 1%, smartphones 1.1% and televisions 1%. Gasoline rose 0.3% over the week and 21.5% since the start of the year. According to the Economic Development Ministry, food products rose 0.17% over the week and non-food goods 0.13%.
Dmitry Belousov, head of the Center for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, called the current fourth quarter a "moment of truth" for inflation. Analysts at Raiffeisenbank noted that the acceleration occurred across a broad range of items — groceries, haberdashery, clothing and household services. The Central Bank interrupted its cycle of key rate cuts in September, citing increased pro-inflationary risks.
According to Interfax calculations, for inflation to stay within the Central Bank's forecast for the year, prices in the remaining months must rise by an average of less than 0.1% per week.