The price of Russia's flagship Urals crude has fallen to levels not seen since before the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, Bloomberg reported, citing data from Argus Media. The average price for Urals loaded at Russia's western ports during the first three days of July was $41.66 per barrel.
That is roughly half the April peak of $116.05 per barrel, which followed the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz amid the US-Israeli war against Iran. In May 2026, Urals traded at $85–86 per barrel; in June, it was $60.92 per barrel.
The discount of Russian crude to the Dated Brent benchmark widened to $27.35 per barrel. For buyers in India, the discount is $8.55 per barrel.
Since March, Urals had consistently traded above the $59 per barrel assumed in Russia's federal budget. The sharp increase in oil revenues allowed Russia in May to resume replenishing its reserve fund for the first time in nearly a year and to postpone cuts to non-priority spending. However, the budget deficit continues to grow: in the first five months of 2026, it reached 6 trillion rubles (2.6 percent of GDP)—nearly 60 percent more than the full-year target.
Because of the time lag in tax calculations, the July price drop will affect budget revenues only in August, Bloomberg noted. If the price remains below $59 for an extended period, the Kremlin will find it harder to contain the growing deficit.