The hacker group Black Mirror has published an internal Sberbank document titled "Scenarios for Achieving Peace in the Russia-Ukraine Conflict." According to the hackers, the memo, dated April, was obtained from the correspondence of the bank's CEO German Gref, who was the sender. The document's authenticity has not been confirmed, and Sberbank has not yet commented on it.
The bank's analysts examined eight scenarios for ending the war. The most likely, with a probability of 32%, is the "Trump Deal" scenario: a freeze of the conflict along current lines with a partial lifting of sanctions and a closed path to NATO for Ukraine. The probability of a "Korean freeze" — a cessation of intensive fighting without a formal agreement — was estimated at 22%.
The probability of a protracted war lasting another two to three years was estimated at 15%, and the probability of "peace on Russia's terms" (a political defeat of Ukraine due to the exhaustion of Western support) at 12%. The least likely, with an estimate of 2%, is peace on the terms of Ukraine or Europe. Another 5% is allocated to a compromise peace with mutual concessions, and the same amount to "black swans," including nuclear escalation or a change of power in Russia or Ukraine.
The document also provides estimates of Russia's military losses — 20,000–25,000 people per month — and economic difficulties, including a budget deficit, falling oil and gas revenues, and damage to 10–15% of oil refining capacity due to strikes by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. To implement the "Decisive Military Advantage of Russia" scenario, whose probability is estimated at 7%, analysts consider necessary a second wave of mobilization of 300,000–500,000 people, a solution to the problem of air defense for the rear, and a breakthrough in the field of autonomous drones.