In the first week of August, rail shipments of grain to the ports of Greater Odesa fell by 84% compared with July, according to Radio Liberty (RFE/RL), citing brokerage firm Spike Brokers. The decline follows a series of Russian air attacks on Ukraine's Black Sea ports.
Brokers reported that total agricultural exports from Ukraine dropped from 784,500 tonnes in early July to 312,000 tonnes in early August. Wheat shipments fell from 294,900 tonnes to 33,500 tonnes.
Bloomberg reported that Ukraine's agricultural exports could fall by 53% this season compared with the previous one. Ukraine's Agriculture Ministry, as reported by The Moscow Times, cut its forecast for the 2026/27 season by 54%, from 64.4 million to 29.6 million tonnes. Wheat exports could decline by 53%, to 8.3 million tonnes.
About 90% of Ukraine's agricultural exports pass through the ports of Odesa and Chornomorsk, Radio Liberty noted. The agricultural sector accounted for more than half of the country's export revenue in 2025, The Moscow Times added.
The backup route through Romania is currently not helping. Due to heat and drought, water levels in the Danube have fallen to record lows, The Bell reported, citing Bloomberg. Barges heading to the Romanian port of Constanta are forced to carry less cargo, river transport is becoming more expensive, and ships are being delayed.
"Since 2022, Constanta has served as a 'safety valve': when Odesa is bombed, cargo is redirected west and shipped out through Romania. For this, the corridor through which goods travel to Constanta must have spare capacity. But [now] it does not," said Adrian Dobrita, trade director at RWA Raiffeisen Agro Romania.
Due to a shortage of transport and high prices, unshipped harvests are filling storage facilities. According to Ukraine's Agriculture Ministry, grain storage could be full by early November, with a capacity shortfall of about 11 million tonnes by the end of autumn.
Disruptions to Ukrainian grain supplies are pushing global wheat prices up, Bloomberg reported. Futures on the Chicago Board of Trade rose 1.8%, while the contract for hard red winter wheat gained 2.4%. High-protein wheat from the Black Sea region, primarily Ukrainian, is a direct competitor to this American wheat.