Ukraine's Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) said it struck 172 Russian vessels in the Black and Azov Seas over 13 days starting July 6, according to USF commander Robert Brovdi, call sign "Magyar." The operation, dubbed "Moscow will lie through Crimea," targets Russian logistics to occupied Crimea and oil exports bypassing sanctions.
On the night of July 18, Brovdi said, 13 vessels were hit: 12 in the Black Sea and one in the Azov Sea. The targets included eight dry cargo ships, a gas carrier tanker, an oil tanker, two floating cranes, and a tugboat. Ukrainian commanders said the tankers were carrying Russian oil products and fuel, while the cranes and tug were used for port operations and maritime logistics.
Ukraine's General Staff also said it struck a Project 10410 "Svetlyak" patrol ship in Kerch, the second such vessel attacked in two days. Additionally, Ukrainian forces reported hitting a railway bridge over the Belaya River in occupied Luhansk region, which they said was used for military logistics.
The operation proceeds in three phases, a serviceman with the call sign "Fin" from the 414th Brigade of Unmanned Systems told the New York Times. First, drones attacked highways in Crimea and approaches to it, then large warehouses. The third phase, which began in July, targets Russian vessels — Ukrainian commanders waited for a moment when Moscow would have to supply the occupied peninsula by sea.
Thomas Alexa, senior analyst at maritime security agency Ambrey, told the Financial Times the pace of strikes is "unprecedented," higher than during the Iran-Iraq "tanker war" of the 1980s, when sides attacked ships more than 450 times over seven years. "We have never seen anything so concentrated on a global scale," Alexa said.
Ukrainian drones primarily strike wheelhouses or pipelines through which liquid cargo is pumped into onboard tanks, Alexa said. As a result, vessels do not sink but lose mobility, and repairs take a long time.
The main goal is to disrupt Russian logistics in Crimea and oil exports circumventing sanctions. Analysts differ on the strikes' effectiveness. Elizabeth Braw, senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, told the NYT that only small vessels typically pass through the shallow Azov Sea, suggesting cargo delivery to Crimea rather than oil exports abroad.
The strikes have also affected Russian grain exports. Ports in the Azov Sea, including occupied Berdyansk and Mariupol, account for a quarter of Russia's total exports, the Financial Times notes. As of July 13, commercial vessels could neither enter nor exit the Azov Sea, and some ports stopped accepting grain. Russia's Agriculture Ministry said it might change export routes, sending grain through deepwater terminals in the Black and Baltic Seas.
Andrei Sizov of analytics firm SovEcon told Reuters that if the situation persists for most of the second half of the year, "Russia may underdeliver 5 to 10 million tons of wheat to the global market."
Brovdi also said that, according to his data, Russia had pulled up to 200 drone operator teams from the Rubicon unit from the front line to protect its "shadow fleet" — one per vessel. Additionally, forces of the 51st Air Defense Division and an anti-aircraft regiment of the remnants of the Black Sea Fleet are being used for this purpose. "Well, a naval battle is a naval battle, we'll see there," he wrote.