Current as of 18 September 2026
In brief
The argument about a "second wave" is usually reduced to whether a new public announcement will appear. Meanwhile the infrastructure of military registration has changed substantially since 2022: the electronic register and electronic notices are operating, decisions on temporary measures are now generated automatically, and from 2026 ordinary conscription runs all year round. None of this means a new mobilisation has begun, but it does make the work of the commissariats far less dependent on paper notices.
Anton Gorbatsevich, coordinator of the Idite Lesom project, says that mobilisation in the form it took in September 2022 will not happen again: the system allows it to be conducted on a continuous basis. Other human rights projects read these signs more cautiously and stress that the readiness of the infrastructure does not by itself prove a decision on a new mass call-up.
What the law says
Partial mobilisation was declared by presidential decree No. 647 of 21 September 2022. The mass call-up measures of that stage ended in the autumn of 2022; the decree has not been repealed by a separate act, and military courts in 2026 proceed on the basis that the mobilisation period is not over.
Article 4 of Federal Law 31-FZ places the declaration of general or partial mobilisation within the president's powers. It is worth noting separately that decree No. 647 itself instructs the regions to carry out the call-up in the numbers and within the timeframes determined by the Ministry of Defence.
Two parallel procedures are routinely conflated with mobilisation in public discussion. The first is ordinary conscription: under Federal Law 412-FZ it has run year-round since 1 January 2026, with the dispatch periods to units unchanged. The second is reservist training assemblies, provided for in 2026 by decree No. 892 of 8 December 2025.
What the authorities say
The official position as of September 2026 has been consistent. On 28 August Dmitry Medvedev said the state had no plans for mobilisation and that the army was being staffed by those signing contracts voluntarily.
On 1 September, at a press conference in Bishkek, Vladimir Putin described reports of mobilisation after the State Duma elections as an information attack on Russia. On 3 September, at the Eastern Economic Forum, he said there was no scenario today that would require mobilisation, and that the armed forces were experiencing no staffing problems.
Through the summer the Kremlin and the Security Council denied that a new wave was being prepared, attributing the army's needs to contract soldiers and volunteers.
What other sources say
The outlets Verstka and Important Stories, citing sources they describe as close to the presidential administration, reported in the summer of 2026 that the question was under discussion and that a decision might be postponed until after the elections. These are anonymous sources and the reports are not independently confirmed.
The Ukrainian side has made sharper claims. On 25 July Volodymyr Zelensky said, citing intelligence, that Russia was creating the conditions to resume mobilisation; on 11 August he spoke of an additional mobilisation of several hundred thousand after the elections. On 23 August Reuters reported his reference to 300,000, and on 27 August the Ukrainian president's website published an intelligence assessment: 300,000 in 2026 and a further 300,000 in 2027. This is material from one side of the conflict, the Russian authorities reject it, and it is not independently confirmed.
A separate indicator, unconnected to political statements: according to estimates by Janis Kluge of the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, based on budget payments, the rate fell to roughly 800 contracts a day in the first quarter of 2026 but recovered to around a thousand a day in the second. By the end of August the estimated intake remained below the level of the same period in 2025. Different counting methods give a range of roughly 700 to 1,000 a day.
What practice shows
Whatever has or has not been announced, the mechanisms are working. In mid-August 2026 residents of several cities, Yekaterinburg and Krasnoyarsk among them, received electronic notices "to verify personal data" in large numbers.
Human rights defenders record temporary measures appearing in the register and actual cases of exit being refused, including one in September involving a reservist, which matters in itself, since the literal text of Article 7.1(1) is framed in terms of citizens liable for ordinary conscription. On the other restrictions, sole-trader registration, property transactions, driving licences and credit, the public record is considerably less clear.
Enquiries to human rights projects are rising. According to Gorbatsevich, the flow of requests to Idite Lesom has increased significantly against the background of the rumours; Meduza has reported a tenfold rise since the start of the year in enquiries to the Call to Conscience bot on the subject of mobilisation.
The practical conclusion is simple: your own position is worth establishing from an extract from the register of notices, not from headlines.
What could change this picture
A new public decree would be unambiguous official confirmation of a new stage of mobilisation. The legal position is complicated, however, by the fact that decree No. 647 formally remains in force and already provides for the Ministry of Defence to determine call-up numbers and timeframes by region.
The second thing to watch is the rate of contract recruitment and how far it matches the targets the authorities have set. The argument that volunteers are sufficient rests on exactly that.
The third is any widening of the list of temporary measures and of the practice of applying them. That part changes without any announcements at all, and it affects people now.
Articles in this series
Analysis from the "Mobilisation and draft notices" cluster:
A draft notice has arrived: what to do in the first days – when it counts as served and which deadlines follow.
What happens if you ignore a draft notice – the fine, the temporary measures and the criminal article as three separate tracks.
Who will not be called up – exemption, deferment and reserved occupations.
Alternative civilian service – who is eligible and when to file the application.
How to appeal a commissariat's decision – three routes of challenge and when suspension applies.
Draft notices abroad – what Russians who have left need to know.
Where to turn
This article is part of Way Out, a legal project by FACTUM.PRESS: we set out what the law permits and what happens in practice. We do not give individual legal advice and we do not take on cases.
For personal assistance, approach the organisations that provide it: Idite Lesom, Pervy Otdel (First Department), the Conscript's School and the Movement of Conscientious Objectors.
Sources: presidential decrees No. 647, No. 892 and No. 998; Federal Law on Mobilisation Preparation and Mobilisation in the Russian Federation (Article 4); Federal Law on Military Duty and Military Service (Article 7.1); Federal Law 412-FZ of 4 November 2025; Meduza, Radio Liberty, Verstka, Important Stories, Reuters, Sky News, the website of the president of Ukraine, and calculations by the German Institute for International and Security Affairs. Reports from anonymous sources and material from one side of the conflict are not independently confirmed. This article is for information only and does not constitute legal advice.