A fuel shortage in Russia directly affects about 50 million people, or 35% of the population, according to a Financial Times analysis based on the number of motorists in each region. The current crisis is the worst since the late Soviet period, the newspaper reported.
Ukrainian drone strikes have knocked out 20% to 40% of Russian oil refining capacity, according to various estimates. All of the country's largest refineries have been hit. Damage has been inflicted on ten major plants, including the Omsk refinery on July 6, located nearly 2,500 km from the Ukrainian border. According to analytics firm Kpler, Ukrainian strikes have taken up to 45% of refining capacity offline, and repairs to many units may take months or years because Western sanctions complicate the import of spare parts.
In June, Russia processed an average of 4.1 million barrels of oil per day, said Boris Dodonov, head of energy research at the Kyiv School of Economics. That is 28% below the five-year average and 35% below design capacity.
"The crisis is real. People feel it. But it hasn't yet led to large-scale economic consequences," said Sergei Vakulenko, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center in Berlin.
"The defense that used to work can't withstand this pressure. This is the new normal," one Russian energy industry executive told FT.
Amid the gasoline shortage, various restrictions on fuel sales have been introduced across the country. Since the beginning of July, six regions have switched or plan to switch to a system of selling gasoline based on license plate numbers: on even-numbered days, cars with plates ending in an even digit can fill up; on odd-numbered days, odd-digit plates. Authorities hope to reduce queues at gas stations, where residents have to wait for hours or even days.
Domestic diesel prices have risen about 16% since the start of the year, FT wrote. Russia imposed a ban on diesel exports from July 8 to July 31. The restrictions apply only to exports, not to producers.
Russia typically exported 700,000–800,000 barrels of diesel per day, mainly to Brazil and Turkey. But in June, seaborne shipments fell to 260,000 barrels per day, the lowest in at least a decade, according to Kpler.
Global diesel supplies are nearing crisis. Russia's export ban coincides with the aftermath of the war with Iran: Donald Trump said the U.S.-Iran truce "is over," and shipments of petroleum products through the Strait of Hormuz have nearly halted again. Wholesale diesel prices in Europe have surged, and the premium over crude oil reached a record $60.7 per barrel. Although crude oil has fallen from a peak of $100 during the Iran-U.S. war to about $70, diesel still trades around $135 per barrel, so drivers do not feel lower prices at the pump.
"The key question now is how long this will last. Fundamentally, with the Russian export ban, the rest of the world is not producing enough diesel to meet current demand… it could turn out pretty badly," said Alan Gelder, senior vice president for refining at Wood Mackenzie.
Experts warn the ban could lead to shortages in Africa, Latin America, and Southeast Asia, which have less purchasing power than Europe and the U.S. In the U.S. itself, the world's largest diesel exporter, distillate stocks last week hovered just above a 23-year low of about 100 million barrels.