The two craft are at zero relative velocity, according to Orbital Radar, one of the monitoring resources that tracked the approach. A close approach on orbit is considered critical when the distance falls below 1 kilometre.

ICEYE-X36 is an Earth-observation radar satellite able to image the planet's surface, including in cloudy weather. Its data is used for intelligence purposes, including under the company's cooperation with Ukraine, RBC-Ukraine reported.

A CSIS report dated 15 October said Kosmos-2612 was on a trajectory that would bring it into direct proximity to ICEYE-X36. The centre said it should be assumed that the Russian satellite could take actions threatening the commercial craft. It proposed treating any Russian action in space against Western spacecraft in the context of Moscow's "grey zone" policy directed against US and European interests.

Kosmos-2612 was among six satellites Russia launched into low Earth orbit in April 2026. The craft later began performing unusual manoeuvres and approaching ICEYE. In May, Kosmos-2609 came within 2.5 km of it.

According to spaceflight populariser Georgy Trishkin, the manoeuvres may be aimed at destabilising the Western satellite's operation and shortening its service life without a direct collision. The close presence of other craft requires the operator to make frequent orbit corrections to avoid a collision, which increases fuel consumption and shortens the craft's lifespan, Trishkin explained.

Michael Bohnert, a military expert at the RAND Corporation, called Kosmos-2612's manoeuvres a show of force and "space bullying". He noted that a collision between two satellites could produce the Kessler effect, in which the density of space debris triggers a chain reaction and renders orbits unusable for a long time.

This is not the first incident involving Russian interest in the X36 craft. In May, as Reuters reported, four Russian satellites approached it at once, and ICEYE responded by adjusting its craft's orbit. The company has cooperated with Kyiv since 2022, providing high-resolution imagery that Ukrainian forces use for intelligence purposes. In 2026 the sides agreed to expand the partnership.