The board's decision leaves the rate unchanged for the first time since April 2025, when it stood at 21%. Ten of 13 analysts polled by Reuters had expected the hold; three forecast a 25 basis-point cut to 13.75%.

The easing cycle began in June 2025 from 21% and had lowered the rate ten times in a row, by about a third from its peak. The two previous moves were 25 basis points each: from 14.5% to 14.25% in June 2026 and to 14% in July.

In its press release, the regulator attributed the pause to stronger price pressure. It estimated underlying price growth had accelerated to 5–6% in annualized terms. Annual inflation stood at 6.3% as of September 7. In July, seasonally adjusted current price growth reached 11.6% annualized, up from an average of 5.3% in the second quarter.

The Central Bank cited a temporary reduction in production capacity in certain industries as the main driver of price growth, without specifying which industries. It also pointed to volatile items — motor fuel and fruit and vegetables. Higher fuel prices fed into underlying inflation, whose estimated range was raised to 5–6%. According to The Moscow Times, the capacity reductions stem from Ukrainian drone attacks on oil refining and disruptions in marketplace logistics.

The economy grew at a moderate pace in the third quarter, with consumer demand slowing but still elevated, the press release said. Investment activity continued to recover relative to levels seen at the start of the year. Labor market tightness is gradually easing and the shortage of workers is shrinking; unemployment remains near historic lows but has edged up in recent months. The gap between wage growth and labor productivity remains significant.

Inflation expectations among households, businesses and financial market participants moved in different directions but remain elevated. In July, according to Novaya Gazeta Europe, Russians' inflation expectations rose from 12.4% to 14.7% amid a fuel crisis and rising prices for gasoline and diesel.

The Central Bank assesses pro-inflationary risks as having increased and as prevailing over disinflationary risks over the medium-term horizon. These include an imbalance between supply and demand, elevated inflation expectations, wage growth outpacing productivity, and a worsening outlook for the global economy. Disinflationary risks are tied to a more pronounced slowdown in domestic demand.

Under the baseline scenario, annual inflation will reach 6.0–7.0% in 2026 and return to 4.0% in 2027. The next board meeting on the rate is scheduled for October 23. The regulator will publish a summary of the key rate discussion on September 23.

The decision came after public calls for rate cuts over the summer. Speaking at the Eastern Economic Forum, Vladimir Putin said monetary policy in Russia is not too tight, that pumping the economy with money supply is dangerous, and that the government and the Central Bank are deliberately suppressing inflation. According to The Moscow Times, Putin gave the Central Bank the go-ahead for a pause in rate cuts — a move Bloomberg reported several hours before the meeting. Sberbank head German Gref had earlier spoken of an "overcooling" of the Russian economy.

The Central Bank separately flagged budget risks. If budget policy parameters, when new draft provisions are submitted to the State Duma, imply a higher structural primary deficit than in the July baseline scenario, a tighter monetary policy may be required.