Russia may face a fresh round of fuel shortages in September, as major oil refineries go offline for scheduled maintenance and imports from Belarus shrink, Kommersant reported.
Among the plants shutting down is TAIF-NK in Nizhnekamsk, which Ukrainian drones attacked twice over the summer, as well as the Novopolotsk refinery Naftan in Belarus, one of the country's two refineries with an annual capacity of about 12 million tonnes of oil. The Naftan halt could significantly reduce fuel deliveries to Russia, where Belarusian imports have recently compensated for lower domestic output: in July, Belarus shipped a record 212,000 tonnes of gasoline and 162,000 tonnes of diesel to Russia.
Those volumes began falling sharply in early August. According to a Kommersant source, sales of Belarusian gasoline dropped to 21,000 tonnes between July 20 and August 12, down from 165,000 tonnes in the period from June 22 to July 17; diesel fell to 8,500 tonnes from 115,900 tonnes.
Kommersant's interlocutors note that Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries remain an additional risk: attacks are unpredictable and could compound already limited supply in September and October. According to Reuters, at least four major refineries were knocked offline in August by strikes. Russian oil refining volumes fell in July to a two-decade low of 3.5 million barrels per day, recovering to just over 4 million barrels by early August — 30% below the seasonal norm, according to analysts at Rystad.
Supplies from India could partially offset the drop in Belarusian imports. The first 60,000 tonnes of gasoline arrived in Russia in early August, with total volumes potentially reaching 400,000 tonnes per month, Reuters reported. Indian gasoline will go directly to filling stations of major oil companies, bypassing the exchange market.
A new wave of shortages will most likely hit the Urals, said independent fuel expert Maxim Khudalov. "Besides the attacks themselves, there is also the factor of priority supply to the capital," he said. Reuters, citing industry sources, reports that gasoline cargoes are being redirected to Moscow from other regions even as more regions face a second wave of shortages. At least 10 regions have reimposed restrictions at filling stations, Reuters calculated. Gazprom Neft's Moscow refinery in Kapotnya, which supplies about a third of the capital's consumption, is running at a third of capacity after two strikes in June, the Financial Times notes.
Regional media are trying to work around censorship restrictions by covering the fuel shortage through monitoring formats: Krasnodar's 93.RU daily counts how many filling stations are selling gasoline, Novosibirsk's NGS has launched a map of working stations, and Perm's 59.RU runs a weekly "Benzinometer" column surveying stations. SOCHI1.RU put a station attendant's quote in its headline — "People are like animals, gasoline is running out" — though the text itself relies on official statements. According to Meduza, the presidential administration has issued recommendations for media, instructing them to emphasize that the country's leadership is aware of the problems and solving them, to reference a meeting of Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, and to publish photos of working stations without queues.