Russian military casualties exceed new recruits by about 6,000 people per month, according to Western officials cited by The Guardian. The officials estimate that Russian authorities recruit about 1,000 people per day, but over the past two months this has not been enough to compensate for losses. "We estimate the gap between the number of people Russia is losing and the number it manages to recruit at about 6,000 people per month," a source told the newspaper.
The Western official linked the troop shortage to Russia's intensified strikes on Ukraine's civilian and energy infrastructure. According to the official, since early July Russia has launched more than 360 missiles, taking advantage of Kyiv's lack of defenses against ballistic missiles. The source said Moscow hopes to undermine Ukrainian morale by destroying the country's energy infrastructure ahead of winter.
Western officials believe a new mass mobilization would create serious political and economic risks for Russian authorities. After mobilization was announced in autumn 2022, about one million people left Russia, many of them highly skilled specialists; fewer than half have returned. The sources also doubt the Russian army could absorb several hundred thousand mobilized troops due to shortages of equipment and officers.
Western intelligence assesses that Putin's main goal is to continue a campaign of attrition against Ukraine, hoping that support from Kyiv's allies will weaken. At the same time, Western officials stress that the Russian president wants to avoid direct confrontation with NATO, and his threatening rhetoric should be seen as an attempt to create a "fragmented and more vulnerable Europe."