Russian emigration assistance projects report a sharp spike in requests in August as fears spread of a new mobilization drive, with many seeking to leave before October.

The Kovcheg project received six times more appeals from people wanting to leave in the first 20 days of August than in all of May, while requests in mutual aid chats grew more than fivefold, said Yan Slovitski, the project's emergency assistance coordinator. In Armenia, few places remain in budget hotels and hostels for upcoming dates, and prices for what is left have risen noticeably.

The relocation project Relokats saw daily requests grow from about 70 to 120. Most inquiries come from people under 40, many of whom want to leave before October. The most popular destinations are Serbia, Armenia and Georgia.

Those who have left are sharing their stories on social media. Vyacheslav Vdovichenko, who says he moved his family of three children out of Russia, said he regrets only not having done so earlier. Inna, a resident of Novosibirsk, wrote that she, her husband and son "took two suitcases, a dog and flew away" to Georgia.

The anxiety was triggered by Western media reports that Russia is preparing for escalation. The Economist and The Wall Street Journal reported on plans to recruit several hundred thousand more people for the war — from 300,000 to 500,000, possibly without an official mobilization announcement. WSJ sources described exercises in Russian regions where the deployment and arming of mobilized personnel was practiced.

Vladimir Putin has called such reports "utter nonsense" and an "information attack" ahead of parliamentary elections. Presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov speaks of "canards," while Russia's UN envoy Vasily Nebenzya assures that mobilization is "not expected."

Political scientist Dmitry Oreshkin notes that in 2022 the Kremlin also denied plans to invade Ukraine and to announce mobilization. In his view, if the war continues, the "blood tax" will have to be levied — possibly under a different name and with harsher methods. Politician Dmitry Gudkov predicts an "undeclared mobilization" in the regions.

The flow through the Verkhny Lars checkpoint on the Georgian border is telling. Russian customs on August 18 reported a "record" 20,000 people per day; Georgian authorities clarified that the figure was 16,000 in both directions. Over one August week, more than 113,000 people passed through the checkpoint into Georgia, according to Russian authorities.

Even without a new mobilization, leaving is becoming harder. After a summons is issued — including an electronic one, which is considered delivered the moment it appears in the recipient's personal account on the Gosuslugi portal — the conscript's exit from Russia is automatically blocked. If he fails to report to the military enlistment office within 20 days, he faces a ban on registering as an individual entrepreneur and on real estate transactions, restrictions on driving, and denial of credit.