German Gref, president of Sberbank, Russia's largest lender, said the country's economy is suffering from 'overcooling' and called on the state to adopt policies that support and stimulate investment growth. GDP growth in the first half of 2026 came in at 0.6%, he said, well below the 1.5–2% potential that the Central Bank estimates.
Gref said a turning point will not come until market rates are normalized and fall into the 10–12% range. He also pointed to a deterioration in the business climate indicator over the summer and a decline in gross fixed capital formation. He forecast the key rate could drop to 13–13.5% by the end of the year and to around 11% next year, though the process will be gradual and may include pauses.
Despite the 'difficult situation', Sberbank plans to earn record profit in 2026, exceeding last year's 1.69 trillion rubles. In the first seven months of this year the bank has already posted 1.16 trillion rubles in net profit, nearly 20% more than in the same period of 2025.
Gref confirmed that with capital adequacy at 13.3%, dividends will amount to 50% of net profit. The bank 'does not expect problems with capital', he said, and therefore counts on record profit and dividends next year. He also predicted the entire banking sector will earn more than 4 trillion rubles in 2026.
Commenting on accelerating inflation, Gref linked it to supply shocks, including lost capacity in the energy sector. 'Treating a supply shock with monetary instruments does not correspond to the classics,' Reuters quoted him as saying. Even with an elevated inflation backdrop, there remains room to cut the real interest rate, he argued.
Sberbank, one of the main creditors to retailers, is already supporting sellers on marketplaces Wildberries and Ozon whose warehouses were damaged by Ukrainian drone attacks. Gref said the bank has received hundreds of loan restructuring requests and is running a support program for small businesses. He added that higher loan provisioning will not affect this year's record profit.