Ukrainian forces struck Russian oil refineries at least 21 times in August, more than in any other month of the war, Bloomberg reported, citing public statements from both sides.
Russia's crude processing averaged just over 3.8 million barrels per day in August, the lowest in more than 20 years, according to estimates by EA Analytics. In summer, when demand rises due to vacations and the agricultural season, Russia typically processed 5.3–5.5 million barrels per day.
Gasoline production and domestic deliveries fell nearly 20% year-on-year in the first three weeks of August, a source familiar with the data told Bloomberg (the statistics are not publicly available). Diesel output dropped more than 23%, but domestic deliveries fell only 3%: volumes that previously went for export stayed in the country. Before the Ukrainian attacks, Russia supplied about 10% of global diesel exports.
Four of Russia's ten largest refineries were hit in August. The plants were built to supply the most densely populated and industrially developed parts of the country.
Retail gasoline prices are rising again: according to Rosstat, fuel rose 0.9% in the week to August 24, with the average price per liter reaching 77.05 rubles. Since the start of the year, gasoline has gained 19.4%. At independent gas stations, a liter costs about 100 rubles, while at vertically integrated companies with their own refineries it is under 80 rubles. Drivers are largely unwilling to pay 100 rubles, so the absence of a queue at a gas station usually means either no fuel or a price that is too high.
Gasoline exports are banned until January 31, 2027. The ban on diesel exports for producers expires on September 1, but the government is discussing extending it at least until the end of September, and possibly until the end of the year, Reuters reported.
EA Analytics experts expect processing to recover in September to nearly 4.2 million barrels per day. According to analyst Louis Niva-House, the forecast will not materialize if attacks continue at the same intensity.
Regional authorities are preparing residents for the shortage to outlast the summer season: Voronezh Region Governor Alexander Gusev urged people to switch to public transport and promised that "in the second half of September the situation will begin to improve gradually."