Andrei Klepach, chief economist at Russia's state development corporation VEB.RF, was dismissed on August 16, according to The Bell. The outlet reported that VEB head Igor Shuvalov fired Klepach "by a call from above."
Two days before his dismissal, on August 14, The Moscow Times published excerpts from Klepach's report "Russia's Economy and Geopolitical Challenges," which he presented in May at a meeting of the Nikitsky Club. The full text is available on the club's website.
In the report, Klepach stated that Russia "will not win the competition in this war of attrition." He argued that the country is losing the technological and economic race not only to China and the United States but, in some respects, to Ukraine as well. He noted that Ukraine's economy, despite destruction and a demographic catastrophe, survives thanks to massive financial aid.
Klepach warned that the tightening of US sanctions in late 2025 led to reduced purchases of Russian oil by India and China. Considering a likely new wave of sanctions and losses from Ukrainian strikes on infrastructure, he estimated Russia's potential economic growth at 1–1.5% in 2027. The economist said all this would inevitably lead Russia to a "social crisis," arriving "at a time when no one particularly expects it."
Klepach also characterized Russia's monetary policy as unique: "We are at war, spending a lot of money on defense, squeezing the economy, especially the civilian one, with the high cost of money." He forecast a 2.5% decline in real investment in 2026 and possible stagnation in 2027. Among civilian sectors in 2025, only pharmaceuticals and fertilizers grew, but they too slowed by year-end, partly due to Ukrainian strikes on chemical plants.
In the report, Klepach also raised the question of Russia's place in the world: "Will we be a sovereign regional or even global power, or will we turn into a country with a non-sovereign economy, overwhelmingly dependent on China?" He suggested that after the end of hostilities, Russia would not return to a model of European integration.
Commentators and experts noted that the reason for the dismissal was not the report itself but its publication two months later. "As if firing Klepach will make all this disappear," some wrote on social media. Others wondered who in Russia could now speak frankly about the state of the economy.