Russia continued strikes on Ukraine, including on energy infrastructure. Moscow is preparing to send about 120,000 men called up in the autumn conscription campaign to military units. Vladimir Putin again raised the possibility of nuclear weapons use in the event of a direct attack on Russian territory. Turkey and the UN are preparing a new round of talks, while the United States considers additional sanctions on Russia.
Russia continues strikes on Ukraine
Russia launched a large drone-and-missile attack on Ukraine overnight into September 30, including strikes on energy infrastructure. Reuters reported seven people killed, including a child, as well as emergency power cuts.
Ukraine’s Air Force said the overnight attack involved 188 drones as well as missiles, according to the Institute for the Study of War. Another wave followed during September 30, involving 285 drones, many of them jet-powered.
ISW assesses that Russia is intensifying strikes on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure ahead of the 2026–2027 winter. That is an analytical assessment, not confirmed information about a plan adopted by the Kremlin. FACTUM has reported in detail on the renewed mass strikes on Ukraine’s power system and the resulting emergency blackouts.
Overnight into October 1, Russia launched another 107 drones at Ukraine. Ukraine’s Air Force said 63 were jet-powered. Ukrainian authorities reported that 87 drones were shot down or suppressed, with impacts recorded at 11 locations.
In Kyiv, a drone hit a school building. More than 100 children and staff were in a shelter, and no one at the school was killed or injured. Other strikes hit sites in Kyiv and near the South Bridge. FACTUM separately reported on Russian drone strikes near Kyiv’s South Bridge. In Odesa, a business center was damaged and a woman was injured. Reuters has also noted Russia’s growing use of jet-powered drones, which create additional challenges for Ukrainian air defenses.
Fighting along the front
On September 30, Volodymyr Zelensky visited a command post near Lyman. He said Ukrainian forces had retaken about 176 square kilometers of territory during Operation Vivaldi.
Reuters reported that the operation had disrupted Russian efforts to advance toward Sloviansk and Kramatorsk.
In its assessment for September 29–30, ISW said it had not confirmed Russian advances in several sectors, including around Kupiansk, Lyman, Kostiantynivka and Dobropillia. Heavy fighting nevertheless continued. ISW also reported a Ukrainian advance north of Sumy.
Russian forces remain on the offensive in eastern Ukraine, while the situation continues to shift in individual sectors of the front.
Russia begins sending autumn conscripts to military units
On October 1, Russia’s General Staff said about 120,000 people are to be sent to military units between October and December 2026. The dispatch of conscripts is due to begin on October 10, Interfax reported.
Vladimir Putin’s decree provides for the conscription of 261,000 people over the course of 2026. A total of 141,000 were called up in the spring campaign.
Since Russia introduced year-round conscription procedures, some call-up decisions can be made in advance, while men are summoned to military enlistment offices during the actual dispatch period to be sent to their units.
This is regular conscription, not a new mobilization. As of October 1, there has been no official decision to launch another mass mobilization in Russia.
Russia’s military recruitment system has nevertheless changed substantially since 2022. Regular conscription, contract recruitment, regional enlistment bonuses, electronic summonses and a unified digital military registry now operate in parallel. FACTUM has examined the system in more detail in “Mobilisation in Russia: what is known as of September 2026”.
Russia plans higher military spending
Russia’s ninth State Duma began work on September 30. United Russia holds 349 of the chamber’s 450 seats. The new parliament includes war veterans, military correspondents and other candidates linked to Russia’s war in Ukraine. FACTUM examined its composition in “The War Duma”.
Putin addressed lawmakers the same day. He referred to annexed Ukrainian territories as “new regions,” again used the phrase “righteous struggle,” and urged deputies to avoid “destructive populism” when considering the budget. FACTUM separately reported on Putin’s address to the opening session of the ninth State Duma.
According to published budget documents, Russia plans to raise defense spending in 2027 to 17.1 trillion rubles. Reuters estimated that figure at about 27% above the previously planned 13.5 trillion rubles. The agency calculated that Russia’s combined military spending over the next three years could total about 50 trillion rubles. FACTUM has also published a separate breakdown of the 2027 defense budget.
The planned spending levels indicate that the Russian government is budgeting for elevated military expenditure beyond 2026.
Putin again raises nuclear weapons
On October 1, speaking at the Valdai Discussion Club, Vladimir Putin said everything possible should be done to prevent nuclear weapons from ever being used.
In the same remarks, he discussed how Russia might respond to a direct attack on the Kaliningrad region or another part of Russian territory. In that event, he said, the question of using Russia’s entire available arsenal would “inevitably and immediately” appear on the agenda, Interfax reported.
The remark was made in the context of a hypothetical direct attack on Russian territory. Earlier, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia had no plans to use nuclear weapons against European states and would act within the framework of its nuclear doctrine.
A day earlier, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte said the alliance saw no imminent threat of a Russian attack on NATO territory, Reuters reported.
Neither Russia nor NATO is publicly saying it is preparing for a direct military confrontation. Nuclear references, however, are appearing with increasing frequency in official Russian statements. FACTUM examined the broader Russia-NATO context in “Europe in the Gray Zone of War”.
Turkey and the UN prepare a new round of talks
Turkey and the United Nations are preparing a new round of Russia-Ukraine talks that could take place in the first half of October. According to Bloomberg, as cited by Interfax, one of the main issues could be a ceasefire in the Black Sea and measures to protect shipping and grain deliveries.
The Switzerland-based Centre for Humanitarian Dialogue is also playing a mediation role.
Separate contacts between Russia and the United States are continuing. Kremlin envoy Kirill Dmitriev discussed the war in Ukraine and possible postwar economic projects during talks in Washington in late September. Narrower ceasefire arrangements, including in the energy sector, are also being discussed.
The talks have not produced an agreement on a full cessation of hostilities. FACTUM previously reported that the Kremlin did not rule out the resumption of Russia-US-Ukraine talks in October.
US considers additional sanctions on Russia
On October 1, The Associated Press reported that Ukraine is submitting proposals for new sanctions targets in Russia to the US administration and Congress.
Among the priorities are entities linked to Russian satellite communications, as well as vessels and companies associated with the so-called shadow fleet used to export Russian oil.
The same day, Estonia banned the transit of Russian and Belarusian grain through its territory.
Against the backdrop of continuing diplomatic contacts, Western governments are also considering additional economic pressure on Russia.
Political persecution in Russia
On September 30, Dmitry Peskov said Russia “categorically denies” that it holds political prisoners. FACTUM examined that claim in detail using its political persecution database in “Peskov Says Russia Has No Political Prisoners. What the Cases and Numbers Show”.
At the latest count, the database contained 6,794 people, including 2,163 who were imprisoned. Human rights organizations had recognized 1,404 people as political prisoners.
Also on September 30, Moscow’s Basmanny District Court ordered journalist Yury Dud arrested in absentia for a second time. The new criminal case over alleged “public calls for terrorism” is linked to his interview with Denis Kapustin, commander of the Russian Volunteer Corps, OVD-Info reported.
Russia’s Interior Ministry also placed Little Big frontman Ilya Prusikin on a wanted list on September 30. The published entry shows that he is the subject of a criminal case, but the authorities have not disclosed what the case concerns. Prusikin had previously been designated a “foreign agent,” in part over his anti-war statements. Mediazona reported the new wanted notice.
Kasparov says he was warned of a threat to his life
On October 1, Garry Kasparov said US and Lithuanian security services had warned him of an assassination threat. Reuters linked the warning to an investigation into an alleged network targeting Russian opposition figures abroad.
The US Justice Department has previously charged five people whom federal prosecutors link to Russian intelligence structures. The charges include conspiracy to finance terrorism and, for some defendants, conspiracy to commit murder for hire. These are allegations by prosecutors; the defendants have not been found guilty. The Justice Department published the charging announcement.
Russian authorities deny involvement in operations against political opponents abroad.
On September 28, the FSB said opponents of the Russian government who had left the country were known to the security service “by name” and that their “fates are sealed.” There is no public evidence directly connecting that statement to the warning Kasparov says he received.
FACTUM previously reported in detail on allegations that Russian intelligence services planned to kill Kasparov and Ilya Ponomarev in the United States and another opposition figure in Vilnius.
What is known as of October 1
Russia continues intensive strikes on Ukraine and is planning higher military spending. Russian forces remain on the offensive, while Ukrainian troops are conducting counterattacks and retaking territory in some sectors.
Russia is beginning the autumn dispatch of conscripts. There is no official decision to launch another mass mobilization.
Moscow continues to discuss negotiations on narrower issues, including the Black Sea and energy infrastructure. At the same time, the United States and European governments are considering additional sanctions.
Russian officials continue to invoke nuclear weapons in discussing a possible direct conflict with NATO, although neither side says it intends to start such a confrontation.
Criminal cases against journalists, activists and opponents of the war continue in Russia.
As of October 1, there is no agreement to end the war. Diplomatic contacts are continuing alongside fighting, strikes on infrastructure, higher military spending and preparations for additional sanctions.